YANGON, May 17, 2018 – Myanmar’s economy performed better in 2017/18 amidst growing global and domestic uncertainty, partially offsetting slower growth in 2016/17. Myanmar’s informal economy is one of the largest in the world. Recent developments Myanmar experienced a broad-based pick-up in economic growth in 2017/18. For 2018 estimate, Myanmar's GDP per capita will be $6,509 in PPP per capita and $1,490 in nominal per capita. YANGON—Despite Myanmar facing a significant economic downturn last year, government officials and business people alike have expressed positivity for the country’s economy in 2019, especially in regards to foreign investment and the local business environment.. Large dams and infrastructure projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative have served to strengthen Myanmar’s economic links with and dependence on China. Nandar Hlaing, Office Manager. List of alerts, ongoing and past disasters covered by ReliefWeb. Civil society organization (CSOs). Due to limited local processing capacity, Myanmar continues to import a substantial share of its petrol and diesel, mainly from Singapore and Thailand. RW COVID-19 page: Find latest updates on global humanitarian responses. The potential of coastal and ocean fisheries remain largely unrealized. The key question on process design concerns sequencing: which should come first, political negotiations on arrangements for a federal union, or arms surrender in a nationwide ceasefire as a precondition for political talks? From The Report: Myanmar 2018 Although it has moderated from earlier double-digit highs, GDP growth remained robust in the early 2010s, accelerating from 5.3% in 2010 to 5.6% in 2011, 7.3% in 2012, 8.4% in 2013 and 8% in 2014. This military ‘state capture’ is the primary explanation for the character of the state and the persisting challenges of contested state authority, limited state capacity and weak legitimacy. Myanmar has many different types of EAOs, highly diverse in ethnic identity, military strength and engagement strategies towards the Myanmar army and the government. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, economic growth in Myanmar was projected to pick up to 6.3 percent in FY2019/20 and 6.4 percent in FY2020/21. Agriculture is the biggest contributor to GDP (more than 35% in 2014) and employs more than 65% of the population, but the petroleum sector is likely to play a leading role in generating economic growth. He is in charge of data management and economic analysis. Many acknowledge that Myanmar’s democracy is flawed, and the level of trust in political institutions is low. In Myanmar, the military is the foremost economic and political force in society. Politics Myanmar’s current political situation must be understood with reference to the country’s long history of military statebuilding. can support investment and economic prospects, as evidenced by Special Topic analysis in this report. Hydropower. The Myanmar Development Institute (MDI) is an economic think‐tank to strengthen the analytical capacity of the government of Myanmar in the formulation and implementation of long-term national development agenda and specific policy actions based on the 12-point economic policy. Also, some local actors feel that not all international consultants who work in Myanmar have sufficient country expertise. Moreover, women have played only a limited role in the peace process, and there has been little progress in implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325) on Women, Peace and Security. The opportunities for popular participation are limited – a major challenge for the legitimacy of the state, despite the successful introduction of electoral democracy, with the 2015 electoral victory for NLD representing a strong show of support for democratization. According to the major EAOs, there can be no real peace without political negotiations on the questions of ethnic self-determination and federalism. Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis. This chapter is from the Myanmar 2018 report. Core causes of ethnic conflict are political grievances related to ethnic self-determination, representation and equality, war-related security and development grievances, and the mistrust and resentment fuelled by failed peace initiatives. Among other things, Myanmar has the greatest power-sector investment needs among the countries of Southeast Asia. Find help on how to use the site, read terms and conditions, view the FAQs and API documentation. Myanmar Elections 2020; Township Profiles; Conflict Analysis; Population & Housing Census (2014) New Legislation; Human Rights Instruments; Aid Policy and Coordination; Sustainable Development Goals; GIS Resources & Agency Maps. Without the participation and influence of the major EAOs, the political process is unlikely to yield substantive and lasting peace. The conflict may also be used strategically for the dual purpose of destabilization and securitization, especially by actors within the military. Myanmar Economic Growth The economy is expected to grow at the slowest pace on record this year, before growth picks up solidly in 2021 on the back of strengthening clothing and natural gas exports and stable agricultural production. U Phyo Min Thein, Chief Minister, Regional Government of Yangon: Interview, Country Profile, from The Report: Myanmar 2018, Growing economy following higher foreign investment and improved public spending in Myanmar, U Kyaw Win, Minister of Planning and Finance: Interview, Efforts to improve Myanmar's investment environment, New policies and initiatives encouraging small business development in Myanmar, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam: Interview, Impacts of lower corporate tax rates on developed and developing economies. Table 1 is inspired by Koji Kubo’s 2014 study, “Myanmar’s non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions: a gravity model analysis” Myanmar suffers from large-scale deforestation that has accelerated in recent decades. Gender: Gendered Experiences of Land Confiscation in Myanmar: Insights from Bago and Kayin (Saferworld 2018): Research exploring the (differing) impacts of land confiscations on men and women, including destruction of livelihoods, economic insecurity and psychological trauma. Find our research on the Bloomberg Terminal, Dow Jones Factiva, Eikon, S&P Capital IQ, LexisNexis and more. However, the country still has many challenges to face. Note: official export and import figures are underestimated and do not account for smuggling with neighboring countries. Numbers of Internet, social media and mobile users in Myanmar in 2018 Myanmar trade data. Budget. Myanmar has a pressing need for foreign direct investment (FDI). Myanmar's GDP is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2020 and 6.0% in 2021 – ADO 2020 Update. Myanmar is formally designed as a unitary state, with modest decentralization to regions/states and self-administered zones and divisions. Myanmar’s COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan for 2020 included emergency fiscal and monetary measures, such as subsidised credit for small businesses and self-employed people, and food and money for households. Data and Statistics, DICA Myanmar 2. Moreover, there exists considerable mistrust between the NLD government and the civil service, due to the military background and loyalties of many bureaucrats. This strengthens the military’s interest in maintaining control, thereby increasing the risks of corruption, human rights violations and continued conflict. Covid-19 and Myanmar: can the fledgling insurance sector adapt to the disruption? In November 2015, the first free general elections since the 1990 elections resulted in a victory for the National League for Democracy (NLD). Some of these measures will extend into the first months of 2021. For labour migrants, there could be some scope for return, and Myanmar needs people to fulfil the many new roles in its transitioning economy. Gas reserves are more plentiful, with 283 billion cubic meters of proven natural gas, similar to the reserves of Thailand. This makes it important for international assistance to design and implement ‘politically smart’ strategies in support of substantive democracy and peace. This chapter contains interviews with U Kyaw Win, Minister of Planning and Finance; U Phyo Min Thein, Chief Minister, Regional Government of Yangon; and Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. Growing Economy The World Bank projects economic growth will be 6.2 percent in FY 2018-2019 (a slight decrease in previous years’ projections). After the 2015 elections, China regained greater influence, not least through its active role in the Myanmar peace negotiations, accompanied by efforts at improving its image through corporate social responsibility programmes and engagement with a broad range of stakeholders. The forest industry has been grossly mismanaged: at the present rate of deforestation, the forests will disappear by 2035. But the fisheries remain underprioritized by the government and suffer from poor management as well as the lack of infrastructure, modern technology and impact assessments. Myanmar is thus a country with long and continued attention to statebuilding – but the state has been dominated by the military, although some degree of power has been transferred to a civilian government headed by the NLD, and the authority, capacity and legitimacy of the state remain fragile. External actors. A peace agreement could put additional pressure on forests and accelerate deforestation: when the armed groups that previously controlled various forest areas lay down arms, these areas will be available for companies involved in illegal logging. Will RCEP help drive Asia’s Covid-19 recovery? Myanmar Economic Forecast for 2018 and Economic Update Overview: Myanmar’s economy is expected to recover in 2017/2018 due to the notable reforms and strong foreign investment flowing into the … Regarding gender rights and women’s participation in the economy, the period 2006–2016 has seen some improvements. The 2016/2017 annual reports from Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International highlight human rights abuses in the context of ethnic armed conflicts; discrimination and violence against the Rohingya minority; restrictions on freedom of expression; abuses of women’s rights and reduced international scrutiny. The upstream petroleum business is open to foreign investors, whereas downstream is restricted. Ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). Aid soared by 788% within just a year, from USD 504 million in 2012 to USD 4.5 billion in 2013. It feeds ethnic tensions in various parts of the country, and is likely to remain a major source of domestic social and political tension in the near future. After a series of political and economic liberalization reforms from 2011 onwards, Myanmar’s political trajectory remains open-ended, although the most plausible scenario remains a continued slow democratization process. Climate change. The other ASEAN member countries are more developed than Myanmar, providing an impetus for the country’s reform-oriented path as it seeks to catch up. Contents strengthening the autonomy of the state vis-à-vis military economic and political movements, is a key challenge for political reform in Myanmar. Explore other chapters from this report. State fragility and legitimacy. Building state authority has centred on the question of incorporation of ethnic minorities in the periphery: for Myanmar, resolving intrastate conflicts remains a pressing challenge. On the supply side, growth was driven by a recovery in agriculture as farmers stepped up crop production, strong industrial and Some areas that are contested or controlled by ethnic armed groups have parallel systems of resource governance. With the 2017–2018 Rohingya crisis in Rakhine State, Muslim countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and neighbouring Bangladesh have also contributed to shaping Myanmar’s international relations. In 2017, the century old Companies Law was substantially revised. The local conflict in Rakhine has become politicized, both within Myanmar and internationally. The present study estimates the causal effect of a process of political change, namely, a recent constitutional referendum, on economic growth in Myanmar. Although Myanmar has gradually improved its ranking in the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index, moving from 157th place in 2013 to 136th out of 176 countries in 2016 (Transparency International 2017), corruption remains widespread and pervasive. The last Quarterly Economic Development & Outlook Discussion took place on Tuesday, December 10th, 2019. Changing civil–military relations, i.e. We advocate for effective and principled humanitarian action by all, for all. Peace initiatives. The shift to a democratically elected government has widened the space for more inclusive policy-making, but this appears to be hampered by an organizational culture of hierarchical decision-making within the ruling NLD, the government and the civil service. Heralded as a watershed moment for Myanmar, its halo effect dampened in the international media due to the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine state involving the Rohingya people.5 Economic situation Since Myanmar began its transition to civilian-led government in 2011, the country initiated economic reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment and Myanmar has one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia, with average economic growth of 7.5% during the period 2012–2016, and … Open job opportunities in the humanitarian field. Find latest updates on global humanitarian responses, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Cáritas reclama en Myanmar el retorno a la democracia y a la paz, Joint Call for a Global Arms Embargo on Myanmar: An Open Letter to the UN Security Council and Individual UN Member States [EN/MY], Myanmar: UN expert sounds alarm ahead of expected protests. When asked about what is most important now – democracy or economy – most Myanmar citizens opt for economy (Welsh & Huang 2016a). Mining. FDI and sources of growth. Government institutions need a better understanding of climate change and its effects – both direct impacts on Myanmar and indirect impacts via neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh (Overland et al. He holds degrees from Yangon Institute of Economics (B.Com and M.Dev.S) and Kyung Hee University of South Korea (M.A., Economics). Discover the world's research. Myanmar has one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia, with average economic growth of 7.5% during the period 2012–2016, and this is expected to continue for several years. Growth has dropped off slightly since 2015, reaching 7% that year and 6.1% in 2016, according to the IMF. Myanmar is heavily influenced by external actors, where ASEAN, Australia, Migration, climate change and humanitarian needs Migration. The various ethnic groups agree that only political negotiations on self-determination, federalism and ethnic equality can resolve the ethnic conflicts in Myanmar. Aung San Suu Kyi has been criticized by the international community for inaction and silence on the Rohingya crisis and for doing little to prevent grave human rights abuses by the military, against a stateless community that is recognized by neither Myanmar nor Bangladesh. However, Myanmar’s economy is now expected to decline sharply due to direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic. Myanmar’s economy has grown by more than 7.5% per year on average during the past five years, and continued growth of over 7% is likely in the medium term. Curated pages dedicated to humanitarian themes and specific humanitarian crises. Informal economy and corruption. As regards forced migration, the situation between 2007 and 2017 was actually worse than before the political thaw (UNHCR 2017). Although it has moderated from earlier double-digit highs, GDP growth remained robust in the early 2010s, accelerating from 5.3% in 2010 to 5.6% in 2011, 7.3% in 2012, 8.4% in 2013 and 8% in 2014. Limited infrastructure remains a major hurdle to economic growth – for instance, only 37% of the population have access to electricity (World Bank 2017a). Myanmar’s economy, based on the kyat (the national currency), is one of the least developed of the region and is basically agricultural. One explanation of the rapid economic growth is the country’s young population, which helps ensure high growth in consumption and incomes during the period 2015–2025. Matters of economic development seem to fall somewhere between these two poles. Religious institutions have long traditions of providing important services in Myanmar society, especially in education, health services and welfare support, including humanitarian assistance to displaced persons. In 2016–2017, investors became increasingly cautious and worried about the slow pace of economic reform (Vakulchuk et al. The government has shown a commitment to adopt international standards in governing the mining sector, for instance by joining the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative in 2014. Petroleum sector. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Myanmar averaged 8.32 percent from 1994 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 13.84 percent in 2003 and a record low of 2 percent in 2020. To analyze the impact of this process, this study compares the trajectories of actual and counterfactual GDP per capita after the referendum using the synthetic control method. Detailed analysis The Myanmar government’s continued stability depends on key compromises with the still-politically-powerful military, which holds three key cabinet posts All this means that the transformation towards democratic policymaking and bureaucratic professionalism may well seem slow. Inflation. With the change of government in 2011 came a series of political reforms in support of basic civil rights, electoral democracy and economic growth. GDP growth. 27 August 2018. Climate change may appear to be an abstract and remote problem for a country with many more pressing concerns, but the impacts of climate change on Myanmar are proving more immediate than expected, and are likely to be even greater in the future. The civil rights and liberties of women are largely restricted; their freedom of movement is limited and there are no special legal provisions for female participation in political processes, at the local or national levels. Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis Kristian Stokke, Roman Vakulchuk, Indra Øverland Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2018. Growth has dropped off slightly since 2015, reaching 7% that year and 6.1% in 2016, according to the IMF. Khine Tun, Economist. The military (Tatmadaw). Despite attempts to improve donor coordination after the NLD government came to power, much still remains to be done. Rather, the Tatmadaw in its own right has become the basis for the formation of an economic elite, and has hence developed an economic self-interest in the continuation of military rule. Religious actors. Fisheries. Myanmar therefore greatly needs support in strengthening its technical capacities. Khine Tun joined the IMF Myanmar Office in January 2014. To which sectors of the Myanmar economy. This has an impact on state capacity in policy-making and public administration, and poses challenges for external engagement. Open training opportunities in the humanitarian field. Transforming civil– military relations remains the core challenge for substantial conflict resolution, democratization and development. From 2011 onwards, these reforms also created an opening for Western states to suspend or lift sanctions and engage in state capacity building, and for UN agencies and international NGOs to strengthen their engagement with Myanmar. After almost 50 years of military dictatorship, and following the 2010 general elections which were rigged in favour of the military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), Myanmar underwent a series of political reforms from 2011 onwards. State/regional governments also have a constrained revenue base and continue to rely on transfers from the union level, even though many ethnic states are rich in valuable natural resources. However, there is a long way to go before real progress in governing the mining sector is achieved. The informal sector is linked to corruption, drug trafficking, smuggling, illegal migration and cross-border trade. During military rule, Myanmar was regarded as one of the most oppressive countries in the world. After five decades of autocratic military rule, Burma (also known as Myanmar) has initiated a critical transformation to representative democracy.