See “Development Aid at a Glance: Statistics by Region”, OECD, 2019, p. 7.Hide Footnote The combination of blanket sanctions, the previous junta’s inept economic management and development actors’ wariness of working under a military regime had long left the country far behind its neighbours in development indicators. It analyses four different aspects of the Tatmadaw: military doctrine and strategy, organization and force structure, armament and force modernization, and military training and officer education. [fn]See Richard Horsey, Ending Forced Labour in Myanmar (London, 2011), p. 196; Toshihiro Kudo, “The Impact of United States Sanctions on the Myanmar Garment Industry”, Institute of Developing Economies, December 2005.Hide Footnote, By the late 2000s, many Western leaders recognised that international pressure and sanctions had failed, and had had significant counterproductive effects. ... Madison that any act of Congress that conflicts with the Constitution is null and void, thereby establishing the doctrine of judicial review. For further discussion, see Crisis Group Briefing. “Briefing with Senior State Department Officials on the State Department’s Assessment of Recent Events in Burma”, op. Myanmar’s rulers are deter­mined not to bow to outside pressure. 7 February 2021. The detention of civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, as well as her anointed president, Win Myint, has generated immense popular anger. These claims lack substantiation. Doctrine Post-independence/civil war era (1948–1958) The initial development of Burmese military doctrine post-independence was developed in the early 1950s to cope with external threats from more powerful enemies with a strategy of Strategic Denial under conventional warfare. Unfortunately, there is good reason to believe that such cooperation will be crucial in the days to come. "In line with our global policies, we’ve removed the Tatmadaw True News Information Team Page from Facebook for repeated violations of our Community Standards prohibiting incitement of violence and coordinating harm," a Facebook representative said in a statement. This work studies rationales and strategy behind the force modernization programme and examines the military capabilities of the Tatmadaw. This is an ominous development for the Rohingya people of Rakhine State. See Crisis Group Report, Myanmar: Sanctions, Engagement or Another Way Forward?, op. For Western governments invested in Myanmar’s democratic transition, initial statements were only an opening salvo. Most of the outside pressure has failed to take into account how this government sees and responds to the world beyond its borders. The Myanmar military took the world by surprise on 1 February, staging a coup d’état that abruptly curtailed the country’s democratic transition and has sparked mass protests that could lead to deadly violence. Any measures should be preceded by a careful review and evaluation of potential consequences of targeting the conglomerates as a whole, rather than some (or many) of their constituent companies. 7 February 2021. Military leaders have sustained this narrative in the post-coup period. For Australian measures, see “Myanmar Sanctions Regime”, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. There are valuable insights into the way the armed forces have attempted to govern Burma over the past 14years, their internal disputes, and how they see their future role. First, the fact that the generals staged a coup implies they are ready to sacrifice the international acceptability and economic gains that liberalisation delivered over the last decade in exchange for other objectives. cit.Hide Footnote Even before these bans came into force, many Western and multinational companies had decided to withdraw, due to reputational risks or because they were targeted by boycott campaigns initiated by Western advocacy organisations and Myanmar groups in exile. In 2016, the year before the Rohingya crisis, ODA flows reached $1.537 million. The 2003 U.S. import ban dealt a particularly grave blow to Myanmar’s garment industry, for which the U.S. was the major export market. Crisis Group interviews, Myanmar businessman, economist, January 2011. [fn]“ASEAN Chairman’s Statement on the Developments in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar”, ASEAN, 1 February 2021. What should be done? 1/2021, Office of the President, 1 February 2021.Hide Footnote, Myanmar has seen coups before, in 1958, 1962 and 1988, but unlike in those cases, this time around the Tatmadaw has been at pains to paint its overthrow of the elected government as constitutional and seems intent on maintaining the existing constitutional setup. sanctions on Myanmar formally eased”, The New York Times, 11 July 2012; “Joint Statement between the Republic of the Union of Myanmar and the United States of America”, press release, White House, 14 September 2016; “EU-Myanmar relations”, European External Action Service, 25 June 2018.Hide Footnote But the military’s violence against the Rohingya in 2016 and 2017 led to a number of targeted sanctions on individuals being reimposed, including asset freezes and visa bans on the senior military officers and other security officials seen as most responsible for the violence. Indeed, sanctions may have hardened Myanmar’s military leaders against diplomatic entreaties from the West, at the same time rallying Asian neighbours to the junta’s side (throughout this period, countries in Asia – including all Myanmar’s neighbours – continued to trade and engage with it). Already in 2017, a debate, sparked by the Rohingya crisis, about removing Myanmar from the EBA resulted in the EU putting the country under a regime of enhanced monitoring. 1/2021, Office of the President, 1 February 2021. The coup will certainly test some of Myanmar’s other foreign relations, but the Tatmadaw has clearly bet that they have enough international support to protect them from any degree of outside pressure that would make their lives too difficult. Each opening is accompanied by control mechanisms to limit the negative impact of allowing in more foreigners. See also S. Rept. Focusing on the evolution of military professionalism in ten key Asian countries, the authors investigate its conception, practice, and consequences. Investment and trade bans. Such punitive measures could include sanctions on military-owned enterprises, provided they do not hurt the broader economy and the people. Ibid., p. 17. Even a decade after liberalisation began, these remain substantial, though not as dominant in the economy as often portrayed. "We will continue to fight for a government which is of the people, by the people, for the people," he said during an Assembly session on Myanmar. [fn]See Crisis Group Report, Myanmar: Sanctions, Engagement or Another Way Forward?, op. “Myanmar junta pushes punitive cyber bill”. Crackdowns on protesters are a real danger and, given that Myanmar is a highly militarised country with dozens of heavily armed ethnic armed groups and militias, violence could escalate in other ways, too. Consistent with this precedent, on 4 February, some 70 lawmakers elected in November defied the military government by taking their oaths of office at a symbolic parliamentary meeting. [fn]Order No. For many years, sanctions blocked technical assistance from international financial institutions and capacity-building efforts more generally for civil servants, a legacy that continues to be felt today. [fn]Crisis Group Statement, “Myanmar’s Military Should Reverse Its Coup”, 2 February 2021.Hide Footnote The generals have not so far attempted to decisively end the protests, but if they feel compelled to do so, deadly violence is certainly in their repertoire. Contrary to their counterparts in many other military-ruled states, they remain hesitant to embrace foreign investment fully, although it is an extremely lucrative arena for rent seeking”. The NLD could then be required to dissolve. Asian and Western powers should work together to deter violence. What Effect Did Sanctions Have Last Time Round? 7 February 2021. Yet the coup cannot go unchallenged. This site uses cookies. They conti­nue to believe that Myanmar both can, and might be better off to, uphold the traditional emphasis on self-reliance. Thus far, ASEAN has called for the “pursuance of dialogue”, while several of its members characterised the developments as their neighbour’s “internal affairs”. Most officers are fiercely proud of Myanmar's historical resistance to imperialism and extremely sensitive to any attempt by foreigners to dictate its internal policies”. Asian authoritarianism). The Myanmar military is known as the Tatmadaw. The key to coming to grips with modern Burma is to understand the country?s armedforces. "Selth's book will become a standard reference work. On the continuation of the previous system, see “Senior General makes speech at Union Government meeting”. Drawing on five years of research in Burma and beyond, including interviews with military specialists and commentators, Andrew Selth has written the first book on the inner workings of the Tatmadaw. What it did not contemplate was a scenario in which a figure as popular as Aung San Suu Kyi, as de facto civilian head of government, would be able to use her position to control the president’s selection, as has been the case since 2016, and then wield power through her appointee. U.S. laws required it to block (and lobby its allies to also block) World Bank and International Monetary Fund assistance, and the UN tightly restricted some of its agencies’ and programs’ operational mandates. Myanmar, with its estimated population of about 55 million, the 24th largest country in the world, is larger than England. In the weeks that followed the military crackdown in Myanmar's Rakhine State in late August 2017, hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas crossed the border into Bangladesh, across the Naf river. Crisis Group interviews, U.S. and European diplomats, Yangon, Washington and Brussels, 2017-2021. Since coming to power in 1988, the most recent military rulers of Burma/Myanmar have effectively resisted external demands to turn over power to a democratic government. ... from the enemy to a national security force that defends the interests of all Myanmar’s peoples. Military Doctrine and Strategy in Myanmar, Myanmar Army National Security and Defense Policy Handbook Strategic Information and Weapon Systems, Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Myanmar, Burma s China Connection and the Indian Ocean Region, Slim Chance The Pivotal Role Of Air Mobility In The Burma Campaign, Strategic Trends in the Asia Pacific Region, Laser Growth and Processing of Photonic Devices, Theory and Methods of Metallurgical Process Integration, Endocrinologie, Diabete, Metabolisme et Nutrition pour le Praticien, Advances in System Reliability Engineering, Hillary’s America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party, Special Relativity, Electrodynamics, and General Relativity, The 15 Commitments of Conscious Leadership, Saunders Comprehensive Review for the NCLEX-RN Examination 8 pdf. The current military regime in principle has reversed 26 years of self-imposed isolation in an attempt to revi­talise the ailing economy and ward off popular pres­sure for political reform. Regional governments should consider such steps to protect regional stability. Western powers should avoid the dynamics of the pre-reform period, when their imposition of broad sanctions angered some Asian governments and scuppered prospects for cooperation, for example, disrupting regional dialogues in the framework of the Asia-Europe Meeting. 7 February 2021. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, Myanmar businessman, economist, January 2011. Although it has dominated all aspects of Burmese life since the 1962 coup, there has been no comprehensive ordetailed study of the Tatmadaw as a military institution. While the government obviously is primarily responsible for this, sanctions have thus had an indirect negative effect on poverty, health and education standards”. Diagrams and maps illustrate the Tatmadaw?s organization, structure, and order of battle.The authorpays particular attention to the dramatic expansion and modernization of the Tatmadaw since the 1988 pro-democracy uprising and the secret role that countries like China have played in this process. “Amid coup, Myanmar’s NLD lawmakers form committee to serve as legitimate parliament”, The Committee’s statements appear in Burmese on its. “Top U.S. general tried, but was unable, to connect to Myanmar’s military”, Reuters, 1 February 2021.Hide Footnote. The security forces’ approach could take an even darker turn fast. Jim Webb, “We can’t afford to ignore Myanmar”, International Herald Tribune, 25 August 2009. If the military hoped the 8 November election would curb this power, it was surely disappointed. Critical Asian Studies "Selth's 25 years as a diplomat, strategic defence analyst, and academic has produced more subtle elements...[than a simple] confrontation between the movement for democracy and the all-powerful military, the Tatmadaw." Myanmar has about 7 cities, and it's capital is Naypyidaw. Crisis Group telephone interviews, diplomats, New York, February 2021. Responses around the world have varied. “Top U.S. general tried, but was unable, to connect to Myanmar’s military”, Reuters, 1 February 2021. Crisis Group interviews, Western and Asian diplomats, Yangon, February 2021. It came February 1, the same day a newly elected Parliament was supposed to … For its part, the EU imposed a ban on exports of arms in 1991, and the following year EU member states severed defence links, including through the withdrawal of their military attachés (something the U.S. never did). For EU measures, see the SIPRI arms embargo database. “Shift possible on Burma policy”, The Washington Post, 19 February 2009. There is a recent precedent for such a move: on 17 October 2020, the election commission announced that the United Democratic Party would dissolve, following its chairman’s arrest, on the grounds that it had received foreign funds. Review our privacy policy for more details. cit.Hide Footnote, New regime leaders, now constituted as a State Administration Council chaired by Min Aung Hlaing, have since tried to project an air of normalcy, signalling that they will continue governing as the previous government did – and indeed improve upon its performance. Restrictions were also imposed on high-level government-to-government bilateral contacts. ASEAN’s aversion to commentary on any member’s politics is well known, and several countries in the region may be little concerned with the state of democracy in Myanmar given their own political systems. In 2007, it introduced sanctions on logs, wood products and gemstones, prohibiting their import into the EU and banning export of technology, equipment, technical advice or financing/investment to these sectors. They are driven by an obsession with national sovereignty to seek almost total autonomy from international influ­ences. It has prompted almost universal outrage from Myanmar’s people, who have taken to streets across the country to demand its reversal. It also argues that, despite its imperfections, the Tatmadaw has transformed from a force essentially for counter-insurgency operations into a force capable of fighting in limited conventional warfare. Decisions by private entities to curtail their operations in Myanmar for reputational or commercial reasons could also have impact given the military’s stated eagerness to continue foreign direct investment. A fourth factor is undoubtedly the obscurity of Myanmar's command and control doctrine. Starting in 1988, most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries suspended aid programs, although very limited amounts of humanitarian assistance continued in ways that bypassed state structures. To be maximally effective – in reducing the risk of violence and urging a return to civilian rule – outside powers should coordinate as much as possible, ideally with their approaches mutually reinforcing one another. By Arul Louis. [fn]Ibid.Hide Footnote The Committee is unlikely to be able to influence the course of events, however, until the military decides to reopen the door to civilian rule. The initial EU list contained a few dozen individuals; by 2010, it included more than 50 individuals and 120 enterprises. Although it was never subject to UN Security Council-mandated sanctions, Myanmar was, for over two decades, at the receiving end of some of the toughest bilateral and multilateral sanctions ever applied. cit., Section VI.Hide Footnote Contemporaneous Crisis Group interviews with individuals closely involved in the post-2011 opening indicated that outside pressure and sanctions played no meaningful role in triggering the reform process. On both the weapons flows and the investment, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°305. November 2017. Crisis Group interview, USAID official, Yangon, 2020. 1/2021, Office of the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services, 1 February 2021. They are not avid travellers, and their families have access to everything they need in the region, including tertiary education. Restrictions on exports of defence-related materials were further strengthened by executive order 58, Federal Register 33293, 16 June 1993. The task is particularly difficult given the limits of external actors’ influence over Myanmar’s military leadership, who have demonstrated for decades their resistance to outside pressure, and the prospect that the few tools in their toolbox – in particular, sanctions – could wind up harming the people of Myanmar while leaving the generals relatively untouched. Next the author assesses Slim’s Burma campaign and how the key elements of organization, training and leadership, apart from air mobility, proved critical to Allied victory. For U.S. measures, see footnote 20 above. [fn]See footnotes 29 and 30.Hide Footnote The regulatory complexities and additional transaction costs that the sanctions imposed on commerce in Myanmar likely benefitted the military and its favoured business partners by crowding out competition from other businesses. Since 2011, the removal of Western sanctions and new foreign investments have resulted in high rates of economic growth and an expanding middle class, albeit from a very low base. [fn]Even so, the population affected by Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar received only about one tenth of the assistance provided to Aceh after the 2004 tsunami, a tragedy of comparable scale and impact. [fn]“Joint Report to the President and the Council: Report on the Generalised Scheme of Preferences Covering the Period 2018-2019”, European Commission, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, 10 February 2020.Hide Footnote The question will now inevitably become more acute. By 1948, the new air force fleet included 40 Airspeed Oxfords, 16 de Havilland Tiger Moths, four Austers and three Supermarine Spitfires transferred from the Royal Air Force with a few hun… Granted, the coup is a direct result of the breakdown of relations between the two, but such talks are not impossible, and they remain the best way to probe possible outcomes to the crisis. cit., Section VI.Hide Footnote, Sanctions also undercut the technical capacity of the civil service to run the country and carry out reform. Crisis Group interviews, diplomats and officials, New York, February 2021. Myanmar’s participation in ASEAN has also been half-hearted at best. The quality of foreign direct investment refers to its contribution to equitable and sustainable development.Hide Footnote. The prospect of a violent crackdown remains very real. )[fn]Although the entire sectors were sanctioned, for both regulatory and political purposes a list of businesses known to be operating in the sectors was published in annexes to the EU decisions; it was this list that was copied from the Yellow Pages. Though it was adopted by consensus at a meeting called for by the UK and EU, Russia and China issued a statement “disassociating” themselves from its provisions. For this reason, foreign governments of every stripe need to continue to press the generals to reverse course. [fn]Crisis Group Asia Report N°78, Myanmar: Sanctions, Engagement or Another Way Forward?, 26 April 204.Hide Footnote Nor did they appear harnessed to a viable strategy for doing so. [fn]The Human Rights Council resolution calls for Aung San Suu Kyi’s release and enjoins the Myanmar authorities to refrain from violence in their response to popular protests. It is revealing, in this regard, that the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff reportedly could not get through when trying to call Myanmar’s commander-in-chief on the day of the coup. Chris Sidoti, a former member of an independent UN fact-finding mission on Myanmar, said the doctrine, also known as R2P, should be used to support actions against the Myanmar military such as a global arms embargo, targeted sanctions, and rights monitoring missions. In the November 2020 elections, the NLD received around 68 per cent of the popular vote, which would translate into a wafer-thin majority of 51 per cent of the entire parliament, given that one quarter of the seats are reserved for Tatmadaw appointees.Hide Footnote Alternatively, the generals could take steps that in effect neutralise Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD as political threats.
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